New data shows how Israel-Gaza conflict has impacted regional security perception

New data shows how Israel-Gaza conflict has impacted regional security perception

Leading travel intelligence provider Mabrian published the Security Perception Index

In the wake of the Israel-Gaza conflict, Mabrian has released a Security Perception Index study shedding light on the impact on neighbouring destinations in terms of tourism confidence. 

The main findings of the study shows a significant fall in the perception of safety for all destinations that could be loosely defined as ‘Arab’ regardless of distance from the conflict.  

The Mabrian Security Perception Index measures the level of confidence expressed by visitors and potential travellers regarding a tourist destination based upon social media monitoring. This methodology uses Artificial Intelligence-powered Natural Language Processing to interpret travellers’ sentiment based on social media interactions.

Mabrian CMO Carlos Cendra commented on the findings, saying: "Travel is one of the first industries to feel the brunt of a conflict, certainly at a national level. The Mabrian Security Perception Index is one of the most important indicators we calculate for our clients, since this is one of the key factors for tourists to visit a country or not. What use is great weather or value for money if a destination is not viewed, rightly or wrongly, as safe?"

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“In the case of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, we see a dramatic drop in the security perception in the destinations surrounding the conflict area," continued Cendra. "Neighbouring Jordan and Egypt have lost around 20% and 28% respectively in their score in the last four weeks, when compared to the week before the 7 October attack on Israel. But the effects are also evident in Saudi Arabia, losing around 6% in its security confidence index, and even in Qatar, more than 1,800km away from the conflict area. Qatar saw a quite significant 18% fall.”

The UAE has seen the least drop in its perception of safety, falling just 1%.


When looking at the data, it’s critical to understand the sensitivity of different markets towards the situation, as the scores given are an average of all the major source markets around the world. 

Due to source-market-by-source-market variation, a destination management organisation may want to temporarily pivot towards or away from certain source markets. 

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